The Aviva Premiership season has begun. We wrote these
predictions a few days ago, but our lack of professionalism means we’re
publishing them after the first round. We have been known to get our
predictions wrong in the past, but we are giving it another go!
Let us know what you think! Have we underrated your team? Or
do you think we have got it spot on? We think it is going to be a really close year with a lot of teams fighting for Heineken Cup places. There has been a lot of player and coach movement over the summer, not to mention a whole host of new rules, making predictions even harder.
Whoever you support, the first weekend has shown that this year is going to be tight!
1. Leicester Tigers
The Tigers are notoriously slow starters in post-World Cup
years, which explains their unconvincing start at the beginning of last season.
Last year’s finalists have had another solid off-season bringing in Fijian
winger Goneva and Worcester’s Miles Benjamin to replace outbound Tuilagi and
Agulla. Richard Thorpe will give greater depth in the back-row whilst Jordan
Crane and Louis Deacon should return from lengthy spells on the side-line. With
Castro, Cole and Ayerza in the front row, Leicester have the three best props
in the English game. No other team can compete at scrum time and with the
implementation of the new rules, this should be a decisive factor. A backline
still boasting Manu Tuilagi will always be dangerous whilst the likes of Matt
Smith and George Ford should steady the ship during the Six Nations. Having
lost two consecutive finals, the Tigers will think they’re about due a trophy.
2. Saracens
Whilst the signing of Chris Ashton and the construction of
the new Allianz stadium have dominated the headlines (thanks to the ever busy
Saracens PR team), the slow return of Jacques Burger and Kelly Brown from
injury should allow Sarries another good shot at the title. Injuries to Brown,
Burger, Saull and Joubert crippled the Saracens back-row last season,
prematurely ending any hope the Men in Black had of defending their title.
Saracens have had an unusually subdued off-season in regards to signings, but
have strengthened their pack with a handful of useful forwards. As always, a
lot of pressure will be on Schalk Brits to make anything happen in attack, but expect
large contributions from Alex Goode from fullback if Saracens are going to score any tries. With a huge squad, Saracens
look prepared for a long and gruelling season and they should go very deep in
the playoffs.
3. Northampton
Goodbye Chris Ashton!! Losing Ashton shouldn’t be too big of a blow for Saints.
Perhaps bigger losses were Irish duo Rodger Wilson and James Downey, both of
whom optimised stability and reliability in the Saints team. Northampton still
have their big front-row and with the return of Tom Wood in the back-row and
Courtney Lawes from injury means they should be very competitive. The Pisi brothers and Ben Foden will test defences and make Northampton dangerous. However, we think it's going to be another frustrating season for Northampton. They will make it to the playoffs, but fans will have to be content with another season full of optimism that falls short of expectations.
4. Harlequins
Quins made an incredible start to last season, which was
impetus enough to win the title. Losing only one first team player to the
World Cup was a huge advantage and you cannot underestimate the value of a full
pre-season. They will find it a lot harder this year, especially as teams start
to read their sometimes one-dimensional lineout and loose offloading game.
However, with James Johnston (138kg) and Ollie Kohn (138kg) in the scrum, teams
are going to find it hard to shift the Quins pack. With Nick Evans at fly-half,
Harlequins still have a world-class player who will guarantee them points on
the board all season. Once they’ve made the playoffs, they will have a chance
to repeat championships, but it will not be as easy as it was last year.
5. Bath
With Gary Gold at the helm, Bath are going to improve
dramatically on repeated poor seasons. At the end of last season, Gold
performed miracles at Newcastle and almost saved them from what seemed like
certain relegation. Bath have assembled a squad of promising players who have
yet to reach their potential; Dave Attwood, Carl Fearns and Nathan Catt are all
young English players who could be pushing for regular England places but as of
yet, have failed to consistently deliver. Gold will demand brutal consistency,
especially from his forwards, and given his record at Newcastle (three wins and
a draw in six games), we predict results. Expect Banahan in the centres and the
forwards rumbling in true South African style. With a South African at number 8 and a South African at scrum-half, do not expect too many tries from Bath wingers.
6. Exeter Chiefs
Rob Baxter is one of the best coaches in the game and his
Exeter side are improving every year. What they lack in house-hold names, they
make up for with forward dominance, excellent coaching and a never-say-die
attitude. They still need a few more pieces to push for the play-offs, but with
new signing Dean Mumm, they demonstrated that they are thinking big. Expect
Sandy Park to become a fortress this season and future signings will push them into the top 4 in the very near future.
7. Sale Sharks
A marquee off-season saw Steve Diamond move the Sharks from Sale,
to Salford. He brought in a new coach and a handful of big signings including
the return of Danny Cipriani and the awesome Richie Gray. Whilst Cipriani will
take a while to settle (if he ever does), Richie Gray will make an instant impact. The enormous
lock was excellent in pre-season and looks set to further cement his Lions
starting shirt. Sale have continued to sign solid players to compliment their marquee signings whilst developing exciting
youngsters. Diamond has big plans for the club, but any successes off the pitch
will come from strong showings on the pitch. Head coach Brian Redpath will need
to deliver results and Diamond is impatient to breach the top four. This year is a season too soon in our opinion, but with Gray in the boiler room, Sale
will be dangerous and will take plenty of scalps.
8. Gloucester
There has been plenty of change at Kingsholm over the
summer. After RedpathGate at the end of last season, Gloucester will be keen to
move on under Nigel Davies. The Welshman is known for developing young backline
players so expect big seasons from Burns, Trinder and May. The Cherry and
Whites are looking a little short on the ground in terms of quality forwards
however and over a long season, they will be hard pushed to keep pace with
deeper squads. Ben Morgan and Jimmy Cowan will provide plenty of optimism in
the Shed and Gloucester will be a tough game for any opponent.
9. Wasps
So, they survived. There were times over the last few months
where the existence of the famous London club was hanging by a thread. But
they’re in the Premiership and they have a new owner who has enough money to
keep them afloat. And we think that they’re going to improve. The Hask is back
and so is Tom Palmer. Exciting youngsters Billy Vunipola, Joe Launchberry,
Christian Wade and Elliot Daley will provide plenty of spark this season. They
are complimented by seasoned campaginers like Wentzel, Stephen Jones and Andrea
Masi. However, Wasps will have two major hurdles that look likely to inhibit their immediate
progress. The first is their weak front row. Dai Young is reluctant to invest
in props and Tim Payne looks set for
another difficult year. The second problem Wasps face is their lack of depth.
If the injury list starts to grow as it did last year, they could start to
struggle. One thing is for sure, they will not be in the same relegation battle
they faced last season. If everyone stays fit, Wasps could finish even higher,
but for now, ninth looks like slow and steady progress back to the top.
10. London
Irish
There’s not a lot for Irish fans to get excited about this
season. If anything, they’ve gone backwards – literally. Brian Smith has
returned to be reappointed as head coach and Shane Geraghty has returned to
have another crack at outside-half. All the Armitage brothers have now left for
sunnier pastures whilst Richard Thorpe and Daniel Bowden moved to the Tigers. A
lot of pressure will be on Geraghty and new signing Ian Humphries to direct
traffic whilst Alex Corbiciero’s improvement on the international stage should
translate to the Premiership making the Irish scrum a reliable operator. George
Skivington will provide much needed bulk to the pack and Jonathan Joseph will
be exciting. But Irish will struggle for quality and consistency all season and
their forwards look light on the ground. It’s a good job Shaun Edwards hasn’t
got any hair left to pull out because we reckon it’s going to be a frustrating
season for the Irish.
11. Worcester
Warriors
Despite predicting that they will come eleventh, we don’t
think that Worcester will struggle too much. They have a very combative first
XV and some incredibly talented young players. Openside Matt Kvesic looks
likely to become an excellent player whilst Matt Mullan continues to impress.
Worcester do not possess much quality however and were sad to lose both Garvey
and Benjamin in the off-season. New arrivals Nikki Walker and David Lemi will
score enough tires to keep the Warriors safe, but any genuine progress up the
table will require greater quality in the half-backs.
12. London
Welsh
Can London Welsh survive? Yes. Will they survive? Probably
not. But, they will take some scalps on the way down. Any team that
underestimates the Welsh will probably regret it. The Premiership new boys have
enough courageous forwards, enough large Islanders and just enough quality in
the back-line to cause more than a few upsets. Make no mistake, this is Gavin
Henson’s last shot at top-flight rugby, but Lynn Jones is the man who developed
Henson at the Ospreys. If Henson gets back to his best, he might give Welsh
some hope. Expect a lot of courage and who knows, rugby is an incredible game
and this could just be the fairy-tale story that we all long for.
According to universal speculation, Jonny Sexton is currently in the driving seat for the Lions fly-half jersey. Having led Leinster to incredible European and domestic success, it is probably just reward that the Irish pivot starts as favourite for the shirt. Behind Sexton however, there is not much else to get excited about. Welsh fly-half Rhys Priestland has done his very best to prove to the world and his coaches that the World Cup was in fact a flash-in-the-pan. Owen Farrell is brave and composed, but away from the kicking tee, fails to offer anything in attack and Laidlaw is a scrum-half doing his best to fill a horrible void in Scottish rugby. Toby Flood is still not the player he once was and whilst he struggles to find form, the young pretender, George Ford, remains untested and probably undersized.
